How To Count The Popular Vote

News Type: Opinion — Seeded on Sun Mar 30, 2008 10:25 PM EDT

us-news, obama, election, clinton, primarys

Under a scenario that includes the Florida and Michigan votes for Clinton, gives Obama all of the uncommitted Michigan votes, estimates the votes for all the caucus states and includes the Washington primary, Clinton wins by about 16,000 votes -- or about a tenth of one percent.

Which scenario is "right?" Under DNC rules, until the credentials committee figures out which delegations to seat, Florida and Michigan do not exist. But the voters in those states certainly do in the existential sense -- and if we're answering the question by figuring out how many Democrats voted for Obama versus how many Democrats voted for Clinton.

Obama supporters will anchor their estimates in the worldview most hospitable to Obama's nomination, and Clinton's supporters will similarly find ways to justify including Florida and Michigan before it is DNC-legal to do so.
The media may be called upon to take a stand -- especially since the superdelegates tend to listen to the media more than other entities -- and the most reasonable answer may well be -- well, it depends on who you talk to.

Are there historical precedents? Well, Democrats like to count every vote.

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{"commentId":1638427,"authorDomain":"JohnRussell"}

JohnRussell

It is possible that Clinton may win the popular vote after all, when you include Michigan and Florida. You don't want to count Michigan and Florida? Okay, let them revote. You don't want to count Michigan and Florida, or let them revote? You must want John McCain to be the next President, for if the votes available from Florida and Michigan would materially effect the Democratic race and the issue is not resolved, the Democratic Party will be fractured from now to who knows when, certainly for years. This issue has to be resolved before this scenario comes to pass.

{"commentId":1638427,"threadId":"242679","contentId":"1400521","authorDomain":"JohnRussell"}

1 vote

#1 - Sun Mar 30, 2008 10:30 PM EDT

{"commentId":1638990,"authorDomain":"juppiecat"}

JUPPIECATDeleted

{"commentId":1639158,"authorDomain":"JohnRussell"}

JohnRussell

Look, there is only one reason why you want to 'lay this issue to rest', and that is because it is now presumed that Clinton is more popular in these two states. The DNC should have thought of a different 'punishment' for those who 'broke ' their laws. At that time it was assumed that taking away their results would not materially effect the election. Now it may, and the matter has become much more serious. That is, as they say, the reality on the ground. You can keep saying it's over until you are blue in the face, it's never going to be over, If they don't revote those states or keep the original count it will split the party.

Basically the entire reason we are hearing all this incessant 'she should quit' nonsense is because of the 'disqualification' of Clinton's margin in Florida. If Florida was being counted, she would come close to catching Obama in popular vote in Pennsylvania alone.

Clinton did not only say, "use the count that favors me". She also said that because of the circumstances of the first vote, they should conduct new elections in those states. Obama is the one who refused to do what is easily the most fair resolution of this conflict.

The issue is far from over. JUst wait until it turns out that these votes would make a difference in who was ultimately the winner of the popular vote. Then all hell will break loose.

{"commentId":1639158,"threadId":"242679","contentId":"1400521","authorDomain":"JohnRussell"}

1 vote

#1.2 - Mon Mar 31, 2008 7:22 AM EDT

{"commentId":1638979,"authorDomain":"juppiecat"}

JUPPIECATDeleted

{"commentId":1677459,"authorDomain":"eriqalan"}

eriq samson

Juppiecat - there are a LOT of us who want Florida and Michigan counted; the argument about voting before Feb 5th is childish; and the DNC made an exception to the rules for NH, IA, SC, NV..

Don't count FL and MI, and you can bet that McCain will push for full counting at the Repub convention; How does that make democrats look? You are taking an Obama stance; try taking a Party stance; what is good for the Party?

{"commentId":1677459,"threadId":"242679","contentId":"1400521","authorDomain":"eriqalan"}

1 vote

#3 - Thu Apr 10, 2008 4:27 PM EDT

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Bill Clinton: Caucuses 'Killing Us'	ABC News Blogs	Sat Mar 29	56
Deal on Mich., Fla. Unlikely Before June	Associated Press	Mon Mar 31	16
Obama snags more superdelegates from Clinton	The Boston Globe	Mon Mar 31	9
Projection: Clinton Wins Popular Vote, Obama Wins Delegate Count	US News & World Report	Sun Mar 30	4
Small Town Perspective: It's all about the Electoral College	The Mountain Home News	Mon Mar 31	11

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How To Count The Popular Vote

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