Campaign 2008: Pundits Versus Reality

THE PUNDITS
Despite Hillary Clinton's big victories on March 4th, "the math" works decisively against her and the race is essentially over

THE REALITY
The math is simple: neither candidate has reached the number of delegates required to secure the nomination and either candidate can win
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THE PUNDITS
Barack Obama is substantially ahead in the pledged delegate count; pledged delegates are the only measure of success; therefore the race is essentially over

THE REALITY
The candidates are within fractions of one another on delegates; Barack Obama needs super delegates to win; and a marginal pledged delegate lead does not determine the outcome
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THE PUNDITS
Barack Obama is substantially ahead in the popular vote; Florida and Michigan don't count; therefore the race is essentially over

THE REALITY The popular vote is virtually tied; half of Barack Obama's narrow vote advantage is from his home state; and his lead excludes Florida and Michigan

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THE PUNDITS
Once the remaining states vote, Barack Obama will be substantially ahead in delegates and votes and the race will be over

THE REALITY
The race is a dead heat now and no one knows where things will end up after millions of remaining voters in the upcoming states make their choice
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THE PUNDITS
Hillary Clinton's situation is dire; her campaign is struggling; her supporters are disillusioned and desperate

THE REALITY
Hillary Clinton and her supporters are calm, confident, and focused heading into the key state of PA, where she is running strong

________________

THE PUNDITS
Hillary Clinton's campaign lacks significant grassroots energy; only one candidate has mobilized supporters to take action for the campaign

THE REALITY
Hillary Clinton's supporters across America have written letters, blogged, donated tens of millions of dollars, volunteered millions of hours and made millions of calls

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THE PUNDITS
Florida and Michigan's voters won't be heard and their delegates won't be seated all because of complicated procedural roadblocks

THE REALITY
Barack Obama is intentionally disenfranchising voters in two critical states for purely political reasons, namely, that he'll lose his small advantage if they count

	Vt. Senator Calls for Clinton to Drop Out - The Caucus - Politics - New York Times Blog	The New York Times	Fri Mar 28	5
	Clinton tells Democrats: Don't vote for McCain	CNN	Fri Mar 28	9
	The Casey Endorsement - The Caucus - Politics - New York Times Blog	The New York Times	Fri Mar 28	1
	Dear Hillary: How to Bow Out Gracefully - Stumped	The Washington Post	Sun Mar 30	12
	Clinton has made the right call… so far	msnbc.com	Sat Mar 29	8